1. Automotive Starter Batteries: Lithium Penetration Climbs Yearly, OEM Shipments Expected to Top 12.5 Million Units
The global automotive starter lithium battery market continues to grow at a high pace. According to PW Consulting, the global automotive starter lithium battery market is projected to reach USD 3.189 billion in 2026, up 12.06% year-on-year. Separately, Dataintelo estimates that the global 12V lithium automotive battery market reached USD 7.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 18.6 billion by 2034, representing a CAGR of 10.8%.
Growth in China is even faster. The Chinese automotive starter lithium battery market is expected to reach RMB 3.26 billion in 2026, with a 2025–2026 CAGR of 32%. On the OEM side, lithium starter battery shipments are forecast to reach 12.5 million units in 2026, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry dominating due to its cost and safety advantages.
In terms of penetration, 12V lithium-ion starter batteries held a 4.1% share in hybrid and premium luxury vehicles globally in 2025, and are expected to rise to 11.5% by 2030. Global lead-acid battery giant Clarios has announced the production of its one-millionth 12V lithium-ion battery, signaling that leading supply chains have completed their capacity transition.
Policy is accelerating this shift. The EU, through REACH regulations, the ELV Directive, and high recycled-content requirements, is effectively pushing lead-based batteries out of the market. The European Committee for Electrotechnical Standardization has published the 12V low-voltage lithium battery standard EN IEC 63118-1:2024, providing unified specifications for lithium batteries used in automotive starting, lighting, and ignition (SLI) applications.
On the technology front, beyond pure LFP solutions, "lithium + supercapacitor" hybrid energy storage systems are gaining traction in heavy trucks and specialty vehicles thanks to their extreme cold-start performance and million-cycle lifespan — supercapacitors already exceed 15% penetration in the heavy-truck segment. Sodium-ion starter batteries are also entering the market, capable of retaining 90% capacity at -40°C, offering a new option for low-temperature applications.
2. Telecom Base Stations and UPS Backup: Lead-to-Lithium Enters Large-Scale Procurement Phase
Telecom base station backup power is another multi-billion-dollar market being rapidly reshaped by lithium. As 5G-Advanced (5G-A) deployment scales up, insufficient backup capacity at existing base stations has become a pressing issue, and lithium-for-lead replacement entered an acceleration phase in the first half of 2026.
According to PW Consulting, the global telecom base station lithium battery market is projected to reach USD 18.678 billion in 2026, up 10.85% year-on-year. The UPS market is equally strong: the global UPS battery market reached USD 18.73 billion in 2025, up 14.6%, with lithium-ion batteries exceeding 62% penetration in new installations. In 2026, global UPS battery demand is expected to surpass USD 82 billion, with lithium penetration jumping from 38% in 2023 to over 57%.
Carrier centralized procurement is the core driver. In February 2026, China Mobile announced the winners of its 2026–2028 centralized procurement of LFP batteries for telecom use. Topband Co. won an 11.46% share worth RMB 189 million (301.83 MWh). Zhongtian Technology and NARADA Power also won multiple LFP backup power procurement contracts from China Telecom and China Tower.
Economics is the fundamental logic behind lead-to-lithium replacement. According to a joint study by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) and the three major telecom operators — Full-Lifecycle Economic Comparison of Telecom Base Station Power Systems — in a typical urban aggregation room scenario, a lithium solution delivers a 34.6% lower 10-year TCO compared to lead-acid. Lithium batteries achieve over 98% coulombic efficiency, roughly 15 percentage points higher than lead-acid, further reducing electricity costs. Lithium battery cycle life is 2–3 times that of traditional VRLA lead-acid batteries, significantly reducing replacement frequency.
In Q1 2026, domestic shipments of base station backup and data center UPS batteries reached 12.3 GWh, with high-voltage lithium battery packs (48V and above) up 37% year-on-year — already becoming standard in hyperscale data center projects.
3. Industry Context: Record Output, Consumption Tax Takes Effect in September
While lead-to-lithium replacement accelerates, the broader lithium battery industry is in an upcycle. In August 2026, China's lithium battery scheduled production exceeded 300 GWh for the first time (Bai Chuan Ying Fu survey data: 311.85 GWh, +5.71% MoM), with energy storage cells accounting for over 40% — surpassing EV batteries for the first time.
On the policy side, China's Ministry of Finance and two other departments have confirmed that a 2% consumption tax will be levied on lithium-ion batteries starting September 1, 2026, rising to 4% from September 1, 2027. Sodium-ion and solid-state batteries remain exempt until the end of 2028. Exported batteries are subject to a "collect first, refund later" mechanism. This policy will accelerate the exit of outdated capacity, further strengthening the competitive advantage of lead-to-lithium manufacturers with technical barriers and export capabilities.
4. Outlook: Three Definitive Directions for Lead-to-Lithium
- Automotive starter batteries: Hybrid vehicles and premium ICE cars lead OEM adoption; the aftermarket replacement segment is opening up as drop-in compatible products mature. 12V LFP is becoming the mainstream solution, while sodium-ion differentiates in low-temperature scenarios.
- Telecom base station backup: Carrier procurement is shifting from pilot programs to large-scale, regular tenders. 48V high-voltage lithium systems are becoming standard, with remote O&M and seamless lead-to-lithium compatibility as core entry barriers.
- UPS and data centers: AI computing infrastructure is driving explosive demand for high-rate lithium batteries. Semi-solid / LFP systems with 10C discharge capability are beginning to replace traditional lead-acid UPS.
Lead-acid batteries will remain in the low- to mid-end market for the long term due to their low cost and mature supply chain. However, in high-reliability applications such as automotive starting, telecom backup, and data center UPS, lithium replacement is irreversible. For manufacturers with full-stack capabilities spanning cells, BMS, and system integration, 2026–2028 represents a critical window to capture lead-to-lithium market share.
Sources: PW Consulting, Dataintelo, Bai Chuan Ying Fu, GGII, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), China Mobile procurement announcements, Xinhua Finance, Zosi Auto Research, listed company filings and industry research reports.
